Industry leaders and two very responsive readers have given their considered ideas on what 2006 will bring us for our Crystal Ball issue. If all comes to fruition we are in for a challenging and exciting year. It's good to see that IP, storage and security are still very hot topics as these are topics that form our product focus feature every month and the publication sees no reason to change this focus. Read on and see if you agree.
Mark Heers, director, marketing & alliances (Australia/New Zealand), Network Appliance
As projects within organisations continue to ramp up and the timeframes to deliver them shorten, the demands on the IT infrastructure continue to increase. It is from this basis that NetApp believes the major focus in 2006 will be the need to reduce IT risk.
The two major aspects of IT risk are data continuity (or data recovery) and storage security. There is an undoubted retreat of tape as a storage medium. With the cost of disk falling and access speed being so critical, more and more organisations are ensuring that any data recovery comes from disk.
A recent Enterprise Strategy Group (ESG) study highlighted that over half the surveyed organisations believe that more than 40 per cent of their current tape data storage capacity will reside on disk in the next three years.
Many organisations stage a few days' or weeks' worth of data on disk before moving it to tape, meaning that well over 95 per cent of data recovery activity is driven off disk. Virtual tape technology is being deployed where disk systems mimic tape drives, so that an organisation can gain the benefits of the performance, flexibility and availability of disk systems without changing their backup and recovery processes.
As business over the internet becomes the norm and more personal data is held in organisations' systems, storage security is at the forefront of most IT managers' minds.
Whilst anti-virus, spyware and firewalls protect organisations at the perimeter, data increasingly requires protection against unauthorised access when it is simply sitting in files or being moved around inside an organisation. There is a strong belief that the vast majority of critical 'data at rest' will be encrypted over the next 18 months.
Let's hope that more news in 2006 is about successes in IT projects based on managing risk.
Vaughn Madeley, Nokia Australia's general manager, Australia & New Zealand, Nokia Enterprise Solutions
After seeing the reality of enterprise mobility in Australia come to fruition in 2005, Madeley predicts that 2006 will be the year that mobile technology is extended from the boardroom and taken out to the corporate masses.
The promise for the workforce of working on the go is here, however harnessing the power of today's mobile technology takes more than the mere acquisition of IT tools, whether they are PDAs, smartphones or Wi-Fi-enabled laptops.
Businesses will need to be prepared to realise the benefits that a mobile workforce brings, but should be aware this requires careful planning. With 3G now a reality across all networks in Australia, the mobile phone for business ceases to exist as just a voice device. Mobile data applications will become relevant to the wider business community. However, in the same way that the IT department does not allow every employee to choose his or her own PC or laptop hardware, operating system, applications, service provider and security policies, they now need to manage the mobile phone as a part of their IT applications and manage corporate choices.
Enterprises view email as a key application to mobilise in the short term, but with familiarity of use, end users will put more pressure on corporations to offer all applications on a mobile platform. New handsets and devices on the market will fuel the growth of VoIP as handsets become more sophisticated, combining the power of 3G and WLAN, such as Nokia's new range of business optimised devices.
Mobility is, however, much more than technology. To successfully embed mobility in the fabric of a business involves understanding how people, processes and technology interact to get work done. Companies will demand that their mobile solutions adhere to four key criteria: simplicity of deployment, management and use; elimination of the boundaries of distance and technology; affordability and response to changing company and employee needs; and lastly, but most importantly, protection of sensitive corporate data and systems.
Allan Hopson, head of program management & infrastructure, Australia call centre, ANZ Bank
Hopson looks at the four key business challenges the bank is focusing on that rely on technology as an enable. These are customer satisfaction, staff engagement, productivity and creating value.
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Customer satisfaction
In 2006 we will continue to focus on leveraging our existing technology set to positively impact important customer satisfaction factors. These include enhanced call routing strategies, improved IVR menus and customer navigation options, expanded automation options and improved customer authentication options. We will further develop our MIS capabilities and intelligence, so that we can frame programs of work to fix processes, products or policies that are negatively impacting customers.
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Staff engagement
One of the keys to staff engagement is to try and make the jobs of our customer service consultants (CSC) as easy to do as possible. In a technology sense this means ensuring that our CSC desktop provides an integrated and 'one-stop-shop' for all of the support tools, customer information, product information and other data that they need in order to quickly and securely satisfy customer enquiries. In 2006 we will continue to develop our 'home grown' desktop, by further integrating it with tools that we see as important for service delivery in the Australian call centre.
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Productivity
A focus for us in 2006 will be to leverage the existing technology suite that we have in order to assist with our productivity objectives. This means we will be looking to optimise the performance of some of our key technology components, such as the Genesys Routing Platform, in order to further improve some of our key performance metrics such as first point contact resolution. We will make selective investments in new technology that will assist with our productivity objectives, with an emphasis on open and industry standard platforms.
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Creating value
The Australian centre is a key contributor to ANZ's overall value creation objectives. In 2006, we will enhance our desktop and our inbound call routing strategies to deliver to our CSC's opportunities for targeted sales conversations with ANZ's customers.
Geof Heydon, director market development & innovation: Asia Pacific, Alcatel
In relation to broadband, Heydon comments on the future of content today and into the future. Today we see the internet being used more and more as a rich content source. Peer-to-peer applications are enabling power-users to access all manner of content as soon as it is available anywhere in the world. In fact, Australia is the second biggest downloader of TV content behind only the UK.
On the other hand, broadcasters are going digital and high definition. Personal digital video recorders are becoming commonplace and affordable. Multi-channel delivery is possible, regulation permitting. Interactivity is creeping into the TV environment through the creative use of SMS mobile services but this is less than the perfect approach.
On the telecommunications front, incumbent telephone companies all over the world are looking at the possibilities offered by IPTV - the delivery of video services over broadband IP. This is not delivery of TV over the internet. Yes, it's using internet protocols but it is not the internet. Carriers need to significantly rebuild their IP networks from an architecture that lends itself to cost-effective delivery of the broadband internet to a much more robust and scalable solution to support real time video. Technologies including ADSL2+, VDSL and fibre to the home, as well as WiMax, are all viable IPTV and 'triple play' service delivery mechanisms. Remember that even with advanced video compression, the network must support 12 Mbps or more of bandwidth end to end to deliver a rich set of services that will eventually include high-definition and multi-channel TV.
From the user's perspective, the consumer devices industry is bombarding us with an ever increasing array of products for media. The list is endless and accelerating and increasingly affordable. What was once a Christmas or birthday present decision has become a supermarket decision. Simplicity is the issue. So now we want to connect our PC/Mac to our TV and our VoIP voice services to our PDA, our content server to all our TVs etc. Networking, recently the domain of business, has arrived in the home. Alcatel is seeing competition for the home network and the result today is chaos for the users. Users are failing to bring their home domains of entertainment, communications and information together.
IP is an enabler but it takes collaboration across all the industries represented in the room today to provide the user with a positive experience. The network element will be put in place over the next couple of years but the IT systems and business processes must also be improved to support these service models.
In the next year or so, we will see broadband bandwidths continue to increase and offer users more attractive bundles and we'll see advanced IP networks being built. IT systems reform will begin and with all this investment we will see new services and bundles in the market. Not just a single network and a single bill and a single point of contact for all services but a real start along the converged services path.
The solution - investment and regulation
How far we get along this path will be dependent on regulatory issues, competition and the rate of investment. Users will embrace better value propositions but only if they find the services simple, intuitive and flexible enough to really deliver on the promise of convergence and triple play services that combine video, voice and data in new and innovative ways to really empower users rather than burdening them with more complexity. Users will see the start of this process when broadband is delivered through fixed access such as ADSL2+ and fibre as well as via WiMax and 3G for mobility components of a more 'always connected' service model.
Shuichi Tsukahara, managing director, Canon Australia Pty Ltd
Organisations will become more demanding in the search for technologies that are aligned to their business needs.
Compliance is a significant business issue, extending well beyond the obvious financial regulations, such as Sarbanes Oxley, CLERP 9 and BASEL II. A recent Canon survey revealed that 40 per cent of compliance obligations were driven by Australian Standards and Occupational Health and Safety legislation. These are the kinds of broad business obligations that will spur demand for technology to meet them.
IT budgets and the relentless pursuit of efficiency will see businesses focus keenly on the gains to be made from managing workflow. Information security throughout processes will also be of concern to enterprises, and both of these issues are related to compliance. Integrated information and imaging solutions that meet these real business needs while simplifying the way businesses work will come to the fore. Technologies that make intelligent use of the internet will continue to gain prominence. Examples include the workflow-enhancing applications developed for web-enabled multifunction devices, remote management applications for organisations administering significant fleets of equipment, and network video surveillance.
Neil Gemassmer, vice president Asia Pacific, PatchLink Corporation
According to a recent study by Qualys, automated attacks create 85 per cent of their damage on an IT network within the first 15 days from the outbreak. One way to prevent such attacks and damage is for organisations to implement best practices approach to patch and vulnerability management process rather than taking the 'wait and see' approach.
However, in 2006, we will see organisations continue to finetune their IT security approach and with an increasing number of vulnerabilities, as seen by the recent Paris Hilton worm, businesses will need to look harder at prioritising their patching methodologies. According to the Qualys study, scoring and prioritisation of risk vulnerabilities are going to be more important in 2006.
Radia Perlman, distinguished engineer, Sun Microsystems Laboratories
Perlman makes some 2006 security predictions. There are many issues in security as we approach 2006, such as how to make sure we don't drown in spam and the security flaws that are appearing in software on an almost daily basis.
One vital issue is the user interface. We need to be making our networks secure without the user having to make any decisions.
In other words, we can't keep passing off security decisions through pop-up boxes, and then blame the user if they do something which leads to their environment becoming insecure.
While maintaining simplicity, we need to ensure the user can know who they are talking to as well as being able to authenticate themselves.
All of these objectives need to be based on public key technology (PKI); however, there is a misconception that PKI is too hard or expensive to use. We already use PKI every day when we use SSL (https). We need to add a piece for user authentication and this is not intrinsically hard.
David Sykes, vice president, Pacific region, Symantec
Despite the addition of features designed to prevent attacks, hackers will continue to target new platforms, such as Microsoft Vista. There are no silver bullet solutions. Windows XP SP2, for example, was supposed to resolve many security issues; however, attackers have continued to adapt and innovate in finding ways to infiltrate systems.
The increasing use of stealth technologies, like rootkits, is part of a natural evolution of attack techniques. Hackers don't want to get caught so they employ methods that provide cover. While rootkits are not new, we are starting to see them used more often. We've seen similar tactics with encrypted viruses which attempt to use encryption to hide it from virus scanners.
Over the past 18 months, Symantec has observed a disturbing trend in malicious code. Malicious code authors have been deploying modular malicious code. The threat of phishing continues to grow as attackers take advantage of new targets. Phishing targets will most likely continue to grow.
As cellular telephones, PDAs, and hybrid devices become more prevalent, it is reasonable to assume that security risks, such as spyware and adware, will increasingly target them. However, the risks will vary depending on the operating system, application and how the devices are configured and used. Furthermore, Symantec expects to see an increase in spam targeting these devices.
VoIP is quickly becoming a widely adopted alternative to traditional analog phone systems. There are currently 23 million users of Skype VoIP alone with users expected to surpass 160 million by the end of 2006. While there are currently few reported attacks directed at VoIP systems, Symantec feels that as this new communications technology gains widespread acceptance and deployment, it is only a matter of time before attackers target it more intensely. One possible scenario is the ability of IP-based attackers to gain access to traditional phone systems through IP-PSTN gateways.
Ross Fowler, managing director, Cisco Systems, ANZ
Fowler sees 2006 as the year when the IT, telecommunications and the media industry transform into the industry of tele-interactions. He goes on to say:
What does this mean?
It means that the intelligent interactions network will become the platform for how we remotely interact with the world at large, by providing telecommunications, entertainment, information, applications, commercial transactions or monitoring and control.
In this new world, industries which have been traditionally separate will converge onto a real-time networking platform, all focused on the individual experience and how they interact with the outside world.
And let me tell you, once that individual has experienced real-time interactions, they will expect it every time and with every organisation they deal with.
How does this play out and what impact will it have?
Here's a scenario which will become the norm from 2006.
In business, I use myself as an example of someone experiencing tele-interactions. I cannot do business without my PC and my connections to the network. It allows me to interact with ordering systems, financial reporting, performance management and make phone calls via the Cisco softphone. This allows the business to operate in real time and because everyone at Cisco can do this too, the network becomes a competitive advantage for the business.
And no business or industry is immune from the world of tele-interactions. Quite simply, organisations must respond to this challenge or die. It will be the beginning of the era of the quick and the dead in 2006 and those organisations that invest in intelligent interactions networks will have a distinct advantage over those who don't.
Finally, what does the network need to have to support tele-interactions? It needs to be reliable, secure, support all the interactions you want to have and it needs to be available wherever you are.
The network has become a platform in its own right supporting tele-interactions.
Shaun Page, VP Juniper Networks ANZ
Page poses the question of what will be the top technology trends/issues in 2006 and why this is so and concludes:
IPTV will continue be a major trend in 2006. With its choice of programming, the on-demand capabilities and (in the plans of some operators) the ability to deliver HDTV, it makes a compelling alternative to existing TV services.
ANZ service providers are already upgrading their broadband networks with IPTV capabilities in anticipation of demand for IPTV. Any provider with Juniper products in their network will be capable of delivering IPTV.
Last year, Juniper worked extensively with PCCW (Hong Kong) to rollout IPTV. The carrier now provides up to 70 IPTV channels to its half a million customers.
Security will also continue to be an important focus in 2006. The fundamental need for security and the expertise to manage security on behalf of an enterprise is self-evident as the growth in financial transactions and e-commerce continues unabated. With targeted and often unique network attacks on the rise, organisations will need to protect against network access violation and network disruption.
WAN acceleration will be a key area of focus for Juniper in the year ahead. We will work with companies to help speed applications, increase WAN capacity, enable prioritisation and reduce IT costs.
Phil Siefert, country manager, Tandberg, Australia & New Zealand
Siefert believes that Tandberg's customers will face a similar overriding challenge in 2006: ensuring IT is closely aligned with business requirements. Spending will be driven by business initiatives focused around merger and acquisitions, supporting growing revenues internationally and corporate compliance and financial governance.
On the human side, the pressure to do more with less will increase working hours and business travel driving demand for technologies that can provide real-time collaboration and deliver productivity gains - from Tandberg's perspective this is collaboration.
So what's in store for 2006? The Australian market will be shaped by the relentless drive of convergence. Convergence of audio, video and data is finally happening as we are experiencing 30 per cent plus growth. What underlines this growth is the increased availability of public and private IP networks. Video conferencing is being used to solve business issues ie, remote diagnosis and treatment, remote branch banking and corporate compliance and governance. Expect to see increased uptake of videoconferencing in the corporate, government, education and healthcare sectors as organisations seek real-time collaborative and communication business processes together with operational efficiencies. On a broader scale, handsets will feature additional functionality such as video/TV reception, SMS and mobile email will continue to expand rapidly, governments will extend their push for convergence-oriented broadband and Wi-Fi and WiMax will gain prominence.
Mark Watson, voice communications manager, OneSteel
Watson comments on three technologies that will be of interest to the OneSteel business for 2006. These are VoIP, wireless technologies and wireless PDAs.
VoIP. The technology appears to have matured and a number of businesses are now taking up this as a mechanism for cost saving in providing infrastructure to the business. Although it appears it may provide a level of complexity in providing the voice services and potential as a single point of failure eg, voice and data traversing the same networks and hardware. It will be an area that we will be exploring in more depth over the coming 12 months. This will be in line with development of a voice communications strategy.
Wireless technologies, in particular wireless LANS. There is a huge potential (if security and coverage issues are addressed) for this technology in our business. Manufacturing plants are typically physically large installations and providing cabling infrastructure to these plants can often be cost prohibitive. We may spend some time reviewing this technology.
Wireless PDAs, Blackberry, EVDO cards. These devices are currently utilised in our business and provide our management teams with greater visibility and contractibility day to day, thus enhancing productivity. This is especially relevant in times of travel. It is envisaged that as price reduces these devices may be rolled out further to other areas of the business, and in particular to our travelling sales and marketing departments.
Jon Stretch, chief executive, AAPT
When contemplating the hot technologies in Australia for 2006 and beyond, the smart money looks at properly deregulated communications markets and asks what they were doing in 2002.
In France, for example, you can buy 24 MBps broadband (that's almost 100 times faster than 256 K!) with unlimited downloads, unlimited local and national phone calls, with 80 television and 40 radio channels - all delivered into a Wi-Fi capable home hub. You can buy this from four different service providers for around 29.95 Euros a month (approx AU$48). In France they get innovation, new technologies, investment and service-based competition. In Australia we get a near monopoly that takes 90 per cent of the industry profit, endless debate around operational separation, ACCC processes (whose cycle time is slower than it takes to move to the next battleground), T3 and the Amigos. Which would you prefer?
Craig Campbell, IP communications practice lead, Cerulean
Campbell expects to see more businesses deploying applications over their IP communications networks which are aimed at improving productivity. With new releases of Lotus and Microsoft mail clients, the unified common inbox will become a reality, combining different communications channels, from mobile and landline to email and instant messaging, into a single interface with presence awareness functionality.
Cerulean is already seeing a greater number of businesses investing in the IP enablement of call centres. Until fairly recently, large organisations have kept this area of their business as a separate silo, deploying IP telephony throughout other parts of the organisation without migrating their existing call centre environments to IP. However, the virtualisation capabilities of the IP communications contact centres, which can bring together a disparate or regionally located workforce, will see the traditionally separate call centre facility transformed into a highly flexible, multi-channel client service environment.
Companies will be able to leverage the investment they've already made in IP technology. For example, with radio over IP (RoIP) technology, utilities, distribution and emergency services organisations can combine their existing radio network infrastructure with their IP communications wide area networks at relatively little cost, and take advantage of the flexibility, responsiveness and resilience that IP communications technology delivers.
2006 will definitely be the year for businesses to take advantage of their initial IP investments.
Clive Gold, national product marketing manager, EMC
With IDC predicting that year-on-year growth of terabytes of storage shipped into the Australia market continuing its 59 per cent increase, Gold says the first consequence of this is how to solve backup problems.
For every byte of data stored, 7-15 copies of this data is kept on tape according to Gartner so there is a need to evaluate backup in the following areas, what is backed up and the security of the data. For information that is not changing frequently it makes sense to keep this online on disk because it is cheaper.
There is a lot of work going into active archiving and it is this aspect which is attributed to the 59 per cent increase in terabytes of storage shipped each year. EMC will continue to do a lot of work in active archiving, building tiers of information. The big-end of town is storing information from multiple applications into the same archive, which makes extracting data from emails and transactions and pulling it together in one stream possible. Archiving emails is the most popular storage application.
Customers are trying to integrate different sources of information, and create meta data for workflow and portals for quick extraction.
And as for the Australian Rugby Union, Gold said they can do with some statistical analysis help so they work out what they need to do to play better, a la the Boston Red Sox who used an on demand video to analyse a pitcher from an opposing team, which enabled them to score the home runs needed to win.
